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Don't Count Out the U.S. Consumer, Wells Capital's Jim Paulsen Says

Posted Nov 02, 2009 09:00am EST by Heesun Wee in Investing, Products and Trends, Recession

It still feels like a recession and job losses are mounting. So what's in store for the American consumer and all-important holiday shopping season?

Personal debt levels are exaggerated and lack context, says our upbeat guest Jim Paulsen, chief investment strategist at Wells Capital Management. Specifically, Paulsen argues rising household costs are as much a reflection of rising energy prices as higher debt levels and spending binges. (Click here for charts that break out the U.S. household financial obligations ratio, as published by the Federal Reserve.)

Of course there are risks to his rosy scenario. With oil hovering around $80/barrel and fuel prices like gasoline rising, consumers face a potentially double whammy of (1) higher energy prices and (2) higher cost of money as interest rates eventually tick higher.

But Paulsen, ever the bull, argues higher energy consumption will be accompanied by an overall improved economy that would also bring growth in jobs and income.

Holiday shopping forecast: With less than a month left until Black Friday and the official kickoff to the holiday shopping season, there are plenty of forecasts calling for reduced spending.

For example, two-thirds of U.S. adults plan to spend less this holiday season and 6% say they're still carrying debt from last year's purchases, Reuters reports, citing a Consumer Reports Holiday Shopping Poll.

You can't shake bullish Paulsen, though, who forecasts "a great season relative to what people fear."

Check out the video to see which equity sectors he thinks are best positioned to profit from an upside surprise in economic growth and consumer spending. 

 

 

 

93 Comments

Rick
Rick - Monday November 02, 2009 09:09AM EST

People can not buy ... they have little money and NO credit! However no credit is a good thing for the rest of us ... so that we do not have to pay for thier inability to pay back. Like what we are doing now. Buy within your means ... simple!

Terry
Terry - Monday November 02, 2009 09:14AM EST

The US consumer is done for a few years. The problem actually started when Wall St. started investing our retirement 401k, IRA, pension money globally. This has caused a shift in spreading our money throughout the world at the expense of prudent USA domestic investing. When this gets coupled with Congress giving our tax money away to foreign entities it's a net net negative affect on the USA growth. Then there's the $Trillions that got vaporized by the 40 to 1 mortgage packaging by Wall St. and approved by Congress with Clinton's signature. It all starts with the lifetime crooked politicians in Congress. No Senator should be in office more than 2 terms (12 years) and no Congressmen/women should be in office more than 3 terms (6 years) otherwise they do too much harm to us all. VOTE OUT the INCUMBENTS in 2010.

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Monday November 02, 2009 09:15AM EST

You can't count out the American consumer because they're not in the ring. They've been knocked out of the ring by a mountain of debt and changes to the personal bankruptcy law that prevent them from wiping the slate clean by filing bankruptcy. Surely you don't think any of them actually have the 10% - 20% down payment necessary to get a home loan with the national savings rate at a record low. They haven't saved a dime. Everyone has been living beyond their means for much too long.

__A_YAHOO_USER__
__A_YAHOO_USER__ - Monday November 02, 2009 09:15AM EST

sum1 needs to tell Jim tat with the American consumer so tight with a George Washington tat their breath smells like sh!! and they squeak when they walk....they ain't gonna get loose with George until they see more American made....cause there be to many George's stuck in foreign banks now...and they can't help the American people there. RETAIL POLLUTES....NOT MY COWS! 15 CARGO SHIPS EMIT AS MUCH POLLUTION AS 760 AUTOMOBILES....STOP BLAMING MY COWS AND START SHOPPING FOR AMERICAN MADE.

Rick
Rick - Monday November 02, 2009 09:15AM EST

You have go to love the insight .. when people have jobs, the ecomomy will get better .. WOW, never thought of that.

Terry
Terry - Monday November 02, 2009 09:18AM EST

Another Wall St. CNBC shill trying to protect his job at the expense of the investing public. The problem actually started when Wall St. started investing our retirement 401k, IRA, pension money globally. This has caused a shift in spreading our money throughout the world at the expense of prudent USA domestic investing. When this gets coupled with Congress giving our tax money away to foreign entities it's a net net negative affect on the USA growth. Then there's the $Trillions that got vaporized by the 40 to 1 mortgage packaging by Wall St. and approved by Congress with Clinton's signature. It all starts with the lifetime crooked politicians in Congress. No Senator should be in office more than 2 terms (12 years) and no Congressmen/women should be in office more than 3 terms (6 years) otherwise they do too much harm to us all. VOTE OUT the INCUMBENTS in 2010.

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Monday November 02, 2009 09:22AM EST

gee.. no jobs, no travel, no energy use.. hmmm... but hey, get up off the floor and sing for barack hussein obama mmm mmm mmm.... we'll going to have a great kwanza this year..mmm mmm mmmm.... let's play golf like our potus does... all the time.... always like the saying... " just a LITTLE higher rates.... just a LITTLE higher energy costs".. bawahahahahahahahahhahahahahah

Helga
Helga - Monday November 02, 2009 09:22AM EST

1928-1929 the consumer was tapped out with too much credit debt. Car sales & appliances fell dramatically , workers were laid off and the real economy was in trouble. BUT THE STOCK MARKET ROARED ON!....The market had taken on a life of it's own with it's own delusional reality. THIS GUY SOUNDS DELUSIONAL AS THE MARKET...... Current S&P 500=P.E. 143 to 500.!!!! Historic...P.E.... 14....

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Monday November 02, 2009 09:24AM EST

Hooray! Doom Ticker is dead! Long live Bull Ticker!

chubby
chubby - Monday November 02, 2009 09:25AM EST

The wingnuts are out in force today.

Robert
Robert - Monday November 02, 2009 09:28AM EST

This guy is amazing in his ability to believably present BS as real information. The US citizen has been reduced to a consumer. The idea that we will be able to recover the jobs that have been lost supposes that there is work to be done here that cannot be done somewhere else cheaper, which is not true. We have exported all of our real jobs, so there is no one left to create jobs. The service industries and retailers rely on consumers. There is no industry here to create jobs, so there is no recovery now, nor will there be until we get the government out of the economy. Credit is the main engine of our economy now, rather than production, so all that the government is doing creating a bigger and bigger problem. This guy's angle is to get people to help him get richer by continuing to borrow and spend.

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Monday November 02, 2009 09:28AM EST

who will be hiring? hmmm? magically jobs will be available? how prey tell? hmmm? buy the MASSIVE tax increases on small bidnes? by taking over health rationing? HELLO?.... get yourselfs a mop and start mopping... THERE WON'T BE NO JOBS BY NO SMALL BIDNESS, SONNY...... obama IS THEE MOST RADICAL NARCISSISTIC LOON AS A POTUS ... HE IS DANGEROUS FOR AMERICA.. but hey, lets' sing for him mmm mmm mmm

frankmargel.com
frankmargel.com - Monday November 02, 2009 09:31AM EST

I'll shop at discount stores, some other folks here have suggested they will shop at discount stores too. Discount stores may do better than some expect, maybe not. America overall is not boycotting Christmas. The malls and high end stores must try to compete this holiday for the mighty devalued dollar. How in this climate can the savvy shopper not benefit from this current trend? I like internet shopping and I believe it will break new ground once again. I enjoy shopping less at the malls and more online, that is my strategy for finding bargains, what is yours? Merry Christmas America and retailers you better mark it down, because here we come! smiles....Have a great day! more smiles...

Robert
Robert - Monday November 02, 2009 09:32AM EST

This guy is amazing in his ability to believably present BS as real information. The US citizen has been reduced to a consumer. The idea that we will be able to recover the jobs that have been lost supposes that there is work to be done here that cannot be done somewhere else cheaper, which is not true. We have exported all of our real jobs, so there is no one left to create jobs. The service industries and retailers rely on consumers. There is no industry here to create jobs, so there is no recovery now, nor will there be until we get the government out of the economy. Credit is the main engine of our economy now, rather than production, so all that the government is doing creating a bigger and bigger problem. This guy's angle is to get people to help him get richer by continuing to borrow and spend.

Melia Sese
Melia Sese - Monday November 02, 2009 09:35AM EST

Melia was being asked by everyone over the weekend whether we can still be bullish, with the storm clouds gathering on the horizon. My reply was that we might still go higher but the fear is back and the strategy will be to sell the rallies if we get them. The USD index hasn't pulled back much at all and that was always the catalyst over the summer. Jim Paulsen may be a shill for the sell side, so he must do what he can to bring money in, but it doesn't mean we hafta go along with it. Hold your cash for now.

Melia Sese
Melia Sese - Monday November 02, 2009 09:37AM EST

Chubbster - for our enlightenment (and amusement) - please provide us with your working definition of a "wing nut" - would you be so kind? (LOLOL).

JackT
JackT - Monday November 02, 2009 09:39AM EST

Is this Cramer's uncle? Hello? A great holiday season? Were 10 million jobs created over the weekend? The increase in grocery prices more than made up for any energy savings and most energy savings are the result of people not driving. The cost of many food staples are up 40% - the prices went up while packaging was surreptitiously downsized.

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Monday November 02, 2009 09:39AM EST

Jobs, jobs, jobs. These financial shills can't make up their minds. On one hand they love the paper profits that result from offshoring jobs, but on the other hand they think the American consumer should have bottomless pockets bulging with cash. So, which is it shills? You can't have it both ways, stop peddling your lies!

Helga
Helga - Monday November 02, 2009 09:40AM EST

Consume mass quantities.....Consume mass quantities.........Consume mass quantities.........Consume mass quantities.........Consume mass quantities.........Consume mass quantities.........Consume mass quantities.........Consume mass quantities.........Consume mass quantities.........Consume mass quantities.........

Michael
Michael - Monday November 02, 2009 09:43AM EST

My tea leaves say were in a recovery. All is well thanks to Prozac.

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